UK BBC Platform
On July 10th, Tim Waterer was invited by the BBC to predict the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision.
- Despite the sluggish economic growth in New Zealand, inflation levels remain above the target range. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may need to patiently wait for changes in inflation trends before considering a rate cut.
- Close attention needs to be paid to New Zealand's non-tradable inflation, as it reflects weak domestic demand, such as rising rental costs.
- Regarding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony, investors are closely watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. If inflation shows signs of slowing down, the Federal Reserve might implement a rate cut in September.
Turkey TRT World Platform
On July 10th, Tim Waterer was also invited by TRT World to analyze China's latest inflation data.
- China's CPI came in below expectations, reflecting an uneven economic recovery and a weak consumer market.
- Part of the rise in the Japanese stock market is also due to the weakening yen, with the yen-to-dollar exchange rate having fallen to levels last seen in the 1980s.
- The Bank of Japan might be concerned about this, as an excessively weak yen could lead to "imported inflation."
Turkey TRT World Platform
On July 17th, Tim Waterer appeared on TRT World to elaborate on Trump's re-election and its potential impact on Sino-US relations and the economy.
- If Trump is re-elected, his hardline policy towards China is expected to continue, tariffs and more aggressive measures could be adopted, which will exacerbate Sino-US trade tensions.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in the coming months, which would undoubtedly support the financial markets, boosting market sentiment.
Malaysia BFM 89.9 Radio
On July 19th, Tim Waterer was invited to the "Morning Run" program on BFM 89.9 radio to provide analysis of recent trends in the financial market, particularly in tech stocks.
- The adjustment in tech stocks is mainly due to investors anticipating that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months. As a result, they are gradually rotating into small-cap and cyclical stocks.
- Tech stocks have seen significant gains over the past year, with relatively high valuations. Investors are taking profits and shifting to sectors with lower valuations.
- If Trump is re-elected, his tough trade policies are expected to continue. This will undoubtedly exacerbate trade tensions between the US and China, and investors need to closely monitor the potential pressure on the Chinese stock market.
- Positive signals were seen from China's recent Third Plenary Session. The central government proposed further deepening of reforms and opening up, which will have a positive impact on China's long-term economic development.
Malaysia Biztech Asia Platform
On July 23rd, Tim Waterer appeared on Biztech Asia's live program "Asian Midday Market Watch" to discuss the impact of the current election on the markets.
- As rumors of Trump possibly returning to the White House continue to spread, the market has reacted pessimistically. Asian stock markets broadly declined on Monday, reflecting market’s concerns.
- Biden's withdrawal from the race and his announcement of support for his running mate Harris has increased the uncertainty of the election outcome. However, Biden and Harris share significant policy similarities, which may mitigate the market impact of the election results.
- Whether Trump or Biden wins, both are expected to continue protectionist policies, including tariff hikes, which will put sustained pressure on Sino-US trade relations. Investors need to remain cautious.
In Summary, Tim Waterer discussed the US political situation, Sino-US trade relations, and the policy directions of various central banks at various interviews in July.
As the Chief Analyst at KCM Trade, Tim Waterer, with his extensive industry experience and keen market insight, will continue to work with the whole KCM Trade analysis team to provide professional analysis and valuable insights for investors.
